WPŁYW WYBORÓW POLITYCZNYCH NA CENY AKCJI NA GIEŁDZIE PAPIERÓW WARTOŚCIOWYCH W WARSZAWIE
IMPACT OF POLITICAL ELECTIONS ON SHARE PRICES ON THE WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
Author(s): Marek Szymański, Grzegorz WojtalikSubject(s): National Economy, Financial Markets, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk
Keywords: political election; stock exchange; GARCH model;
Summary/Abstract: The aim of the article is to examine whether the results of the political elections in Poland: (presidential, parliamentary and local) have an impact on share prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) and the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the US dollar. The article describes the results of the analysis carried out using ARCH and GARCH models. The im- pact of the presidential election turned out to be statistically significant (0.05); this impact was visible in the period of 5 days after the election and it was negative. Parliamentary and local elections did not have any statistically significant impact on the analyzed indices. The local government elections had a statistically significant impact (at the significance level of 0.05) on the exchange rate. The impact on the USD/PLN exchange rate was negative, i.e. the elections contributed to the strengthening of the zloty against the US dollar.
Journal: Ekonomista
- Issue Year: 2022
- Issue No: 3
- Page Range: 290-306
- Page Count: 17
- Language: Polish