WARUNKI RYNKOWE A KRÓTKOOKRESOWE MOŻLIWOŚCI PROGNOSTYCZNE NA POLSKIEJ GIEŁDZIE PAPIERÓW WARTOŚCIOWYCH
MARKET CONDITIONS AND SHORT­ ‑TERM FORECASTING OPPORTUNITIES ON THE POLISH STOCK EXCHANGE

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – Verifying that market conditions are related to the ability to provide effectiveforecasts on the Polish stock exchange in the short-term.Research method – A Quenouille autocorrelation test was applied to verify the occur‑rence of correlations between returns in sub­ ‑periods. Market conditions were determined:boom/bust market, bull, bear and normal periods, the occurrence of a crisis and the levelof volatility. The χ2 test and the rho­ ‑Spearman correlation coefficient were used to assessthe strength, direction and significance of the relationship between market conditionsand the ability to forecast future returns.Results – Sub­ ‑periods of significant correlations between WIG returns were found.Forecasting opportunities increased during boom periods, bull markets and periods ofhigher market volatility. Prognostic possibilities decreased during bust, normal and crisisperiods.Originality   / value   / implications   / recommendations – A description of how market con‑ditions can be determined and an indication during which market conditions the chancesof determining successful investment forecasts on the Polish stock market increase ordecrease are provided.

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