DISCOVERING THE
DETERMINANTS OF HOUSE
PRICES DYNAMICS IN POLAND
USING BAYESIAN MODEL
AVERAGING
DISCOVERING THE
DETERMINANTS OF HOUSE
PRICES DYNAMICS IN POLAND
USING BAYESIAN MODEL
AVERAGING
Author(s): Radosław Trojanek, Michał Głuszak, Paweł Kufel, Maria TrojanekSubject(s): National Economy, Financial Markets, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Fundacja Centrum Badań Socjologicznych
Keywords: housing prices; BMA; Poland;
Summary/Abstract: We examine the price drivers in 18 capitalhousing markets in Poland from 2004 to 2021. Usingthe Bayesian Model Averaging method, we discoveredthat some financial elements explain house pricechanges more consistently than conventional economicand demographic variables. The dynamics of houseprices in most cities were defined explicitly by financialfactors – mortgage market activity, mortgage interestrate, and terms and conditions of granting mortgages.Additionally, the stock market played a vital role inhouse price movement in selected cities. Economic(regional GDP, salaries, unemployment) anddemographic (migration) factors were significantpredictors of housing price dynamics only for particularcities. Our study closes the knowledge gap on factorsinfluencing home price dynamics in Poland and otherdeveloping nations that have gone through systemicchange. In the case of Eastern European countries, wehave limited knowledge of those linkages.
Journal: Economics and Sociology
- Issue Year: 16/2023
- Issue No: 4
- Page Range: 73-109
- Page Count: 37
- Language: English
