FIGHTER JETS FOR UKRAINE: A REALITY CHECK
FIGHTER JETS FOR UKRAINE: A REALITY CHECK

Summary/Abstract: After several NATO countries agreed to supply Ukraine with tanks after months of wrangling, the Ukrainian government is intensifying its demands for Western-style fighter jets. However, even with a few Western jets, Ukraine would hardly be able to destroy the powerful Russian air defence systems. In addition, and more importantly, Western fighter jets place enormous demands on infrastructure and training. A delivery decision would primarily be a political signal of long-term support for the country. However, it would not have any impact on the battlefield at this point in time. With the pressure on western states to deliver these weapon systems, the fears of a further escalation of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine are increasing. There is concern that Ukraine would use Western combat aircraft to bomb targets on Russian territory, which, in turn, could push Vladimir Putin to further escalate the conflict. However, even though Ukraine has already attacked targets on Russian territory without resorting to aircraft, this specific risk of escalation is overestimated. Even if the risk of escalation from Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian territory is low, a number of other factors speak against the delivery of Western combat aircraft to Ukraine in the near future. Although these are primarily of a practical and not political nature, they nevertheless make it difficult to rebuild the Ukrainian air force with modern fourth-generation jets in the near future.

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