Did the COVID-19 pandemic permanently impact e-commerce in the US market?
Did the COVID-19 pandemic permanently impact e-commerce in the US market?

Summary/Abstract: The pandemic compelled many individuals, initially hesitant about online shopping, to overcome their reservations, acquire essential skills, and transition to online retail. This provided a natural experiment to assess whether the barriers to online shopping and the comfort of traditional in-store habits have hindered a broader shift to e-commerce. This paper uses the US retail data to analyze e-commerce activities before, during, and after the pandemic to determine whether the pan- demic has permanently altered the pattern of the activities to determine whether the pandemic has permanently altered the pattern of the activities by utilizing structural break detection tools. Addi- tionally, we carry out a forecasting exercise for post-pandemic based on pre-pandemic data to con- firm our findings. Results suggest that while e-commerce activities surged during lockdown, they have predominantly reverted to pre-pandemic patterns. Our findings caution both investors and companies against overreaction in the face of exuberant changes in the market to avoid painful cor- rections afterward.

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