Türkiye ve PIIGSa Ülkelerinde Dördüz Açık Hipotezinin Testi: Panel Veri Analizi
Test of Quadruplet Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey and PIIGS Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Summary/Abstract: The concept of “quadruplet deficit” refers to the concepts of “twin deficit”, “triple deficit” and “output gap”. However, studies that include the output gap, especially with the effect of savings and budget deficits, have recently started to be the subject of analysis. The aim of this study, the quadruplet deficit hypothesis is tested with the 1986-2021 data for Turkey and PIIGS countries. A cointegration analysis was performed for the variables between the relevant years. Then, the long- and short-term coefficients were obtained by analyzing three different estimators (Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG), Mean Group estimator (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect estimator (DFE)) based on pooled and fixed effects. The results show that the quadruplet deficit is not valid for Turkey and PIIGS countries, and the main variable affecting the current account deficit is the savings gap. However, according to the findings, the output gap is among the determinants of the current account deficit in addition to the savings gap in the long run for Portugal and Ireland and in the short run for Spain.

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