Zbrojenia i kontrola zbrojeń w 2022 r. w cieniu nuklearnego szantażu Rosji
Armaments and arms control in 2022 in the shadow of Russia’s nuclear blackmail

Summary/Abstract: The article analyzes the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on armaments and arms control-related issues. Most of all, it explains the grounds and operating modes of the Russian nuclear blackmail as a mean of achieving political-operational objectives. This threat has been interpreted in three ways. First, as a possibility of direct use of nuclear weapons, through the prism of national concepts of strategic deterrence and escalation management. Second, as possible armed attacks against nuclear installations, like the one on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Third, as deliberate undermining of the significance of the nuclear non-proliferation regimes – bilateral (New START) and multilateral (NPT). The next section presents the main points of the new Nuclear Posture Review as guidelines for the American nuclear strategy – especially in terms of a “balanced approach to defending vital security interests and reducing nuclear risks” (also as a US reaction to the war in Ukraine). The last part of the study outlines the 2022 developments of the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes – their dangerous escalations in terms of, respectively, missile testing and uranium enrichment being almost completely overshadowed by the challenges resulting from the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

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