Rok Zeitenwende: czy Niemcy dokonały strategicznego zwrotu?
The year of Zeitenwende: Has Germany made a strategic about-face?

Summary/Abstract: Zeitenwende has become the main slogan of German politics in 2022. In a speech delivered a few days after the start of the Russian invasion against Ukraine, Chancellor Scholz pointed to the need to change policy, especially in the security sphere. However, Zeitenwende means something broader – the need to face Germany’s three dependencies: in security, energy, and globalization. Has there been a real, not just rhetorical, change in 2022? In security policy, Germany hardly says goodbye to its attachment to the “policy of dialogue”. Military support for Ukraine is rather forced by the allies, and the rebuilding of the Bundeswehr – despite the announced EUR 100 billion in investments – has still not really started. The situation is much better in the field of energy, where Germany, which until recently imported half of its gas from Russia, was able to switch to supplies from other directions and launch its first gas terminals. The energy change should be followed by a revision of the current Ostpolitik and its focus on Russia. For now, however, Germany is at a stage of critical reflection, not drawing political conclusions. The last area – dependence on globalization and China – is treated very carefully by the Germans. Decoupling would be risky and could bring huge economic losses. Therefore, Germany will rather defend the current structure and, in addition, diversify its economic connections, thus lowering the risk of critical dependencies.

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