NUCLEAR SECURITY RISKS AND CIVIL DEFENSE
NUCLEAR SECURITY RISKS AND CIVIL DEFENSE

Summary/Abstract: The danger of nuclear attacks and warfare with the use of nuclear weapons is increasingly present. Fears of nuclear attacks and nuclear wars have been fueled by the conflict that has been raging for a long time in the territory of Ukraine, where the use of nuclear weapons has been speculated since the beginning of the conflict. In the paper itself, the subject of the author’s interest is the action of civil defense in case of nuclear conflicts and dangers. The essential question is whether the harmful consequences of nuclear action can be reduced. In order to give the most precise answer to this question, one must start from several important components of the attack itself, namely the question of its scope, the question of the aim of the attack, the question of the place where the nuclear attack took place, what the weather conditions are like at the time of the attack and immediately after him, paying special attention to the strength of the wind and the direction of its movement. In the end, the important question is whether the attacked party has time for a warning. During preventive action, potential moments and locations of nuclear weapons attacks must be calculated. The calculations are called scenarios and their goal is to predict the possibility of an attack, but also the possibility of defending against an attack. Scenarios must be created realistically, with maximum respect for all objective and subjective factors. Unfortunately, this is not the case in practice. Scenarios are almost always created on the basis of assumptions, unnecessary drama is accentuated, political and propaganda platitudes are used, which ultimately results in the creation of unusable scenarios. As an example of a sensationalist prediction of a possible nuclear attack, the well-known example of the so-called attacks on Trafalgar Square in London. If one had thought a little better, it would have been clear to everyone that Trafalgar Square could not be a realistic target of a nuclear attack. Also, the form of manipulation of nuclear attacks is the justification of unilateral attacks on the nuclear facilities of countries that have and are developing nuclear weapons. At the same time, the targets of the attack are not chosen based on realistic parameters, but to justify the value of the set assumption. In order to avoid these malicious mistakes, one must start from realistic knowledge about the beliefs, intentions and military potential of a potential attacker. This knowledge must be incorporated into the assessment of attack types and attack locations.

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