From Russia With Love:Internal Balance Of Power In Russia And The Survival Of Lukashenko's Regime
From Russia With Love:Internal Balance Of Power In Russia And The Survival Of Lukashenko's Regime

Summary/Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between the stability of Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule and the power balance of different factions competing for power in Russia. The article aims to demonstrate that Lukashenko’s survival not only depends on his ability to trade on Belarus’s geopolitical position between Russia and the West but is also is a function of the existing composition of the ruling elite in Moscow. Being increasingly dependent on Russia’s political and economic support as well as on its energy, Lukashenko manages to use Russia’s internal situation of informal political competition by supporting one or another side. Historically, Lukashenko relied on the support and cooperation of groups that were associated with soviet nostalgia, interests in increasing the state’s role in political and economic life as well as representatives of military and military-industrial complex in Russia. Changes to the balance of power within Russia, the withdrawal of older factions and the entrenchment of new ones, has significantly decreased Lukashenko’s ability to manoeuvre in Russian political life and has minimised his ability to manipulate the competition among the Russian power elite. While retaining some leverages and sporadic contacts with the siloviki faction in Russia, Lukashenko faces more and more difficulties in defending his country’s sovereignty and his own autonomy.

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