Методика статистичного аналізу податкових надходжень: теоретичний аспект
Methodology of statistical analysis of tax revenues: theoretical aspect

Summary/Abstract: The article considers the importance of statistical methods for such an important component of the budget as tax revenues. The main attention is paid to the theoretical aspects of the methodology of statistical analysis of tax revenues. The research was conducted on the basis of the analysis of domestic and foreign literary sources, statistical data. It has been established that despite the large number of studies on this topic, the interest in statistical data processing is only growing, especially due to the huge amount of information that requires correct and effective processing and making the right management decisions. It was established that in order to build an effective model of statistical analysis, it is necessary to research the object of analysis, the factors influencing it, as well as the methods that will be the most effective and optimal in the research process. The main groups of factors that influence the amount of tax revenues, including groups of economic, political-legal, demographic and socio-cultural factors have been identified. In particular, such main factors as: the level of economic development of the country as a whole and individual administrative units; average salary level; the level of tax capacity of the population and GDP redistribution; inflation rate; availability of communal enterprises and communally owned objects; availability of financial sanctions and tax benefits; the stability of the tax system is the essence of tax policy: population size; the share of the employed population and the level of unemployment. Attention is focused on methods of statistical analysis of tax revenues, namely: methods of descriptive statistics (calculation of average values, median, coefficient of variation); methods of correlation analysis to identify relationships between factors and performance indicators; time series methods for forecasting tax revenues in the future. It provides its own vision regarding the application of specific static methods specifically for the analysis of tax revenues.

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