THE ‘BLACK SWAN’ THEORY IN AVIATION SAFETY
THE ‘BLACK SWAN’ THEORY IN AVIATION SAFETY

Summary/Abstract: The article is a review and focuses on the analysis and interpretation of Nassim NicholasTaleb’s ‘Black Swan’ theory in the context of aviation safety, considering various aspects ofrisk management and preparation for unforeseeable events in aviation.We present the thesis that the Black Swan theory has significant implications for thedevelopment of risk management strategies in aviation, emphasising the need to prepare forrare but catastrophic events that traditional risk analysis methods may overlook.The aim of the research is to understand how the Black Swan theory can be integrated intoexisting aviation safety frameworks and how it can contribute to the aviation industry beingbetter prepared for extreme events.The article stands out for its original approach to the analysis of the Black Swan theory inthe context of the specific nature of aviation safety, highlighting new perspectives in aviationrisk management. It provides valuable insights into the practical aspects of applying the BlackSwan theory to aviation, offering a novel approach to predicting and responding to unexpectedaviation events. This is important for both aviation safety theorists and practitioners in this field.The research covers extensive literature analysis, including case studies, risk managementtheories and current aviation safety strategies, providing a comprehensive overview of theissue.

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