МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ПОДАТКОВИХ ПІЛЬГ
MODELING OF TAX INCENTIVES EFFECTIVENESS

Summary/Abstract: The authors examine such important tool of tax regulations in Ukraine as tax incentives. Provision of tax incentives and exemptions are often aimed at solving specific social and distributive objectives, promotion of certain types of economic activity, economic growth in general and in some brunches. To determine expediency of certain tax incentives introducing, it is necessary to evaluate their effectiveness. After a thorough analysis of applied approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives, the authors concluded the advisability of the tax incentives effectiveness assessment not on the basis of relative performance in certain areas (fiscal, social or economic efficiency) or integral parameters (budget performance, etc.), but by calculating the absolute values of the resulting effect – fiscal, social and economic impacts. The article presents a methodological approach to the construction of economic and mathematical models of evaluating the fiscal, economic and social impacts of tax incentives introduction provided in Ukraine, and the assessment of a time delay, when effect will be realized. Experimental analysis of the proposed approach adequacy was carried out on the basis of econometric models which showed their high efficiency. In addition, the analysis of simulation results for a particular case of tax incentive allow defining that the fiscal effect is obtained in about 3 years, and social – about a year after its introduction. The proposed methodological approach opens up the space for further research, especially towards the mathematical models construction for predicting the expected effect of the tax incentives introduction on the basis of various mathematical tools (models of nonlinear dynamics, neural networks, fuzzy logic, etc.).

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