Salient monetary policy decisions and non-experts’ trust in central banks
Salient monetary policy decisions and non-experts’ trust in central banks

Summary/Abstract: Objective: The objective of the article is to shed new light on the relationship between central bank commu-nication and the trust monetary institutions can obtain from ordinary citizens via a comparison of the Euro-pean Central Bank (ECB) with the Federal Reserve (the Fed).Research Design & Methods: We used the Eurobarometer and Booth Chicago/Kellogg School Financial TrustIndex to study the evolutions of trust by non-experts in the Fed and the ECB during two episodes of salientmonetary policy decisions: 2012-2013 and 2020-2021. Utilizing logistic regressions on representative samplesof American and EU citizens, we show which among the recent key decisions in monetary policy by the twomajor central banks significantly affected the levels of trust (and in which directions).Findings: Our findings suggest that the ‘taper tantrum’ speech by Ben Bernanke negatively impacted the trustin the Fed, whereas the ‘whatever it takes’ speech by Mario Draghi significantly increased the trust in the ECB.On the other hand, significant policy reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect trust in central banksas could have been expected neither for the ECB nor the Fed. Our inference is based on the estimates consid-ering the standard control variables and for both central banks are robust to a relevant placebo test.Implications & Recommendations: Our results suggest that well-communicated salient monetary policydecisions can boost public trust in central banks, notably in the contexts where the central banks are per-ceived as the key actors.Contribution & Value Added: Thus, our analysis contributes to the literature, by focusing on how salient de-cisions can influence the degree of trust in the central bank by non-experts.

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