Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy in Romania
Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy in Romania

Summary/Abstract: In this study the forecasts accuracy of some macroeconomic variables was assessed, the predictions being made by the Institute of Economic Forecasting (IEF) and by the National Commission of Prognosis (NCP). Only the forecasts for the exchange rate and the GDP index based on Dobrescu model are better than those based on the naïve model on the forecasting horizon 1997-2011. NCP provided forecasts with a higher degree of accuracy than those gotten using Dobrescu model on the horizon 2004-2011 for the following indicators: inflation, unemployment, GDP deflator, export rate and exchange rate. ARIMA models were used to predict the inflation and the unemployment rate, but for 2010-2011 only the unemployment forecasts were better than the naive predictions and the static prognosis were superior to the dynamic ones.

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