Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators - the Case of Poland
Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators - the Case of Poland

Summary/Abstract: This paper concerns the problem of short-term forecasting of economic activity. With the use of Composite Leading Indicators the business cycles of Polish economy are forecasted for 1992–2007 and confronted with real data. Results of Composite Leading Indicator analysis conducted for the end of 2007 suggest possible downturn phase at the beginning of 2008.

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