Modelele comerciale in tarile din UE si impactul asupra cresterii economice
THE TRADE PATTERN IN THE EU COUNTRIES AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Summary/Abstract: We have approached this paper with the idea of helping to predict the likely effects of the accession of the CEEC′s on trade patterns in the enlarged EU and how the trade structure will affect growth. To this end, we examine the factors that account for the major changes that have taken place in trade flows since the CEEC′s began their processes of transition and economic opening-up within the framework of the European Association Agreements. Specifically, our purpose is to find evidence that help us to foresee whether the accession of the CEEC′s will involve not only increased trading with the new partners -attributable to the effects of trade creation and deviation, acknowledged on a general basis in the literature on the Regional Integration Agreements- but also a geographical restructuring of the trade flows between the members of the area. Due attention has not been attached until recently to this latter aspect in the context of the new geography and trade models, although it is of equal importance. In this respect, it is of particular interest to us to examine whether -as has been postulated in some papers- the integration of the CEEC′s may lead to a concentration of the multinationals in these countries with a view to using them as a "exporting platform" in detriment to the exporting possibilities of the current members of the EU, and particularly of the Southern European member states, which have a more similar production and trading capacity to the candidates.

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