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Foundations of Capability-Based Planning

Summary/Abstract: What is CBP and how it differs from other, alternative, methods of defense planning? For nearly four decades the method for accomplishing defense planning was one of the bounding threats. The idea was that using those bounding threats as requirements, as represented by one or two point scenarios, would lead to the appropriate capabilities. Point-scenario planning is characterized by a fixation on particular enemies, particular wars, and particular assumptions about those wars – a fixation that comes at the expense of more flexible and adaptive planning. CBP, in turn, is designed to accommodate uncertainty, the infamous Clausewitzian ‘fog of war’, a feature that point-scenario planning lacks. CBP could be defined as planning, under uncertainty, which aims to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of future challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework. To distill the key features of CBP, the author draws upon two approaches – the 1995 overview of the Australian defense planning system, and more recent U.S. approach, linked to the guidance and requirements of the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review document. Australians have developed a planning methodology that is based on the Government policy guidance, and develops an economically feasible defense force that carries military capabilities required to counter ’credible contingencies’.

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