The Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From the Central Asian Economies
The Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From the Central Asian Economies

Summary/Abstract: This research paper aims to investigate the causal relationship between population and per capita economic growth in the Central Asian Economies (CAEs). Using the ARDL approach to cointegration, we find evidence of a long-run relationship between population and real per capita income and provide strong support for the hypothesis that population is driving growth. Overall, the relationship between population and economic growth is strong and positive in the CAEs over the period of the analysis. This suggests that the CAEs seem to be in the second stage of the demographic transition, called 'post-Malthusian regime', in which the relationship between income and population growth remains highly strong and positive. The policy implications of the findings are clear. The decline of the rate of growth of population seems to be more obviously connected to the political and economic turmoil which followed the dismantling of the Soviet system. On the other hand, the various pieces of legislation introduced to control the relatively high growth rate of population in these countries may have not been entirely successful, as population still tends to respond to factors outside the direct control of the authorities.

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