Bieloruský fenomenón
Belarus Phenomenon

Summary/Abstract: Unlike the countries of Central and Eastern Europe which, after the fall of the communist regimes successfully traveled the path of transition to democracy, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) changed into a distinctive community of authoritarian regimes. Their main purpose is to support each other and give international legitimacy to the leading elites of its member states. It is only a matter of time before the model of oligarchic capitalism and “façade democracy” will show its lack of efficiency and will gather potential for protest from the people living within the model. The author of this essay does not state that the countries of the CIS are standing before a new wave of velvet revolutions, but he believes there are always more reasons to assume that such developments could appear. Georgia was first with its revolution of roses. Then came the Ukrainian orange revolution, followed by the revolution in Kyrgyzstan. In answer to the question ‘who’s next?’ most politicians and experts answer, “Belarus.”

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