An application of branching processes in stochastic modeling of economic development
An application of branching processes in stochastic modeling of economic development
Author(s): Krystyna Twardowska, Marek Andrzej Kociński, Marcin Dudziński, Konrad FurmańczykSubject(s): Economy
Published by: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Keywords: branching processes; moment generating function; forecasting of financial positions of firms
Summary/Abstract: In our paper, a stochastic model of forecasting of the numer of firms of a given type, acting on the market in a given year, is proposed. The model uses the probabilistic tools of the theory of branching processes. Our approach is an alternative method to the forecasting methods proposed so far, including those based on time series. The theoretical results presented in the paper may be applied in the forecasting of the market position of the firms of a given sector.
Journal: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
- Issue Year: XI/2010
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 70-80
- Page Count: 11
- Language: English
