Методологични аспекти в изследването на периодната и кохортна раждаемост (в период на промяна на възрастовия модел на раждаемост)
Methodological Aspects in the Research of the Period and Cohort Fertility (in period of change in fertility age pattern)

Summary/Abstract: An overview of traditional and latest research methods on fertility, focussing particular on the aspects related to the process of postponement of births is presented in this study. Due to the observed low levels of fertility in most of the developed countries over the last decades, the debate on period fertility measures and their interpretation was resumed. The research of the fertility process only on the basis of period measures, such as the total fertility rate, does not allow in-depth studying of all its characteristics and determinants. More over, such approach could distort the outcomes and conclusions about the recent and what is more important, the future, women’s reproductive behaviour. Over the last years, the relevance of the process of parenthood postponement and its long-term effects on fertility rates led to the development of a number of methods analysing the various aspects of that process. The aim of this study is to give a brief overview, without being exhaustive, of the methods developed lately to correct period and cohort fertility measures, as well as to predict the completed fertility of cohorts of women still of childbearing age. Adjusted measures are more accurate indicators of fertility than observed in a given year. At the same time, the cohort analysis of fertility in transition to postponement of births and the possible subsequent recovery of deferred births would provide a better base both for constructing accurate projections of the fertility evolution and for making the right policy decisions to alleviate effects of observed low levels of fertility in the coming decades.

• Details
• Contents