Възможности за прогнозиране фазите на икономическия цикъл на България
Opportunities to Predict Phases of the Economic Cycle in Bulgaria

Summary/Abstract: The article demonstrates the capabilities of the non-linear autoregressive model proposed by Hamilton in order to characterize regularities in the development of the Bulgarian economy in the context of economic cycles. The model uses the gross domestic product index, which, synthesized, reflects the economy’s status and dynamics. Based on estimates of the model parameters, characteristics of the business cycle’s different phases are established: the average growth during expansion and downturn during recession; the average duration of expansion and recession; the fluctuation of the cycle as a whole. The economic cycles in Bulgaria covered by the model belong to Kitchin’s brief cycles. Long-term economic growth is calculated, and effects of recessions reported - this is estimated at 3.64 percent. The cycle phases for the period 1996 - 2010 are established and a developmental forecast is made for the present recessional phase.

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