Влияние климатических изменений на сельское хозяйство Карелии
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KARELIAN AGRICULTURE OF KARELIA

Summary/Abstract: Effects of the climate change on Karelian agriculture are studied. Global warming may cause increase in crop yield, especially in the central and northern areas of the region. The average summer and winter temperatures, cumulative precipitation volumes measured by seasons and months are considered as climate characteristics. Calculations were carried out on three types of crops – grain crops, potatoes, and vegetables. To construct multiplicative crop yield functions climatic (deviations from optimal monthly temperature and precipitation volumes) and agronomic (mineral and organic fertilizers) characteristics and socio-economic indicators (investments in agriculture, development of the regional economy, and dynamics of economic development in the region) are considered. Grain crop yield depends on the level of economic development and is less affected by temperature fluctuations and precipitation volumes. Therefore, the 1º temperature increase by 2030 might lead to the increase in crop yield. Climatic characteristics, especially precipitation volume, proved to be significant for potatoes. As a result it is possible to suggest that the 1º temperature increase might lead to the increase in crop yield by 0,5 %. The yield of vegetables depends on climate factors. The 1º temperature increase might lead to 3,5 % growth in the total yield of vegetables. In conclusion we can ascertain that Karelian agriculture will not benefit from expected climate change. The growth of crop yield caused by climate change will be insignificant in case traditional crops prevail.

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