The Impact of Economic Indicators on Voting Behavior in the 2004 and 2009 Romanian Presidential Elections
The Impact of Economic Indicators on Voting Behavior in the 2004 and 2009 Romanian Presidential Elections

Summary/Abstract: Economic developments impact on voting behavior assumes multiple meanings in the context of presidential elections in Romania. After 1989, the Romanian society has undergone profound structural changes, which later resulted in either social imbalances or contributed to the polarization of voting options. The hypothesis we want to test is that the positive evolution of the economic indicators contributes to the modification of electoral choice, from left party candidates to right party candidates. The second round of presidential elections is, in our opinion, the highest point of intense rivalry and political emulation of the electorate. This is one of the reasons which have contributed to choosing this type of election process as a temporal analysis. Another aspect that led to the choice of this theme is that the polarization of the electorate becomes especially clear in 2004 and 2009. Both in 2004 and 2009, Basescu was one of the presidential candidates; this is way we were interested in discovering the traditional voter loyalties of the right party candidate. In terms of economic factors, we found that the standard of living is dependent on a number of indicators that are felt directly or indirectly by the voters. The analysis revealed that the indicator with the greatest impact on voting behavior is GDP/resident, this is the expression of the recognition of economic developments both in the occupied and unoccupied population. Surprisingly, the GDP/resident has a greater impact in favor of the SDP candidate, which refutes the hypothesis of the paper.

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