Struktura i cechy handlu zagranicznego w kształtowaniu wrażliwości wzrostu gospodarczego na wpływ otoczenia ekonomicznego a transmisja kryzysu 2007-20
Structure and characteristics of the international trade and its impact on the vulnerability of the economies to the external shocks

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is to present the general picture of the characteristics and structure, i.e geographical and basket structure of the international trade (with the special accent on the export diversification versus specialization) as factors of exposure to the external economic impacts (also the crisis shocks). The exposure itself is meant as the average tendencies in the GDP growth and fluctuations implied by the changes in demand of the trading partners. There will be the chosen literature, i.e research, working papers etc. covering the issues of the geographical and basket structure of the export in the economic growth presented together with the main stylised facts accepted in literature and leading conclusions from the analysis. Some part of the paper is devoted to the outline of the main downward tendencies observed in the international trade during the 2007-2009 time period and the special attention is attached to the dominant role of the demand’s drops in generating those drops as well as the transmission mechanisms of the crisis. It is very important that during the 2007-2009 recession (mainly in the year 2009) we observed the synchronized tremendous downturns (generated by shrinking and resigning of the consumption and investment expenditures) in exports in the cross-country perspective in almost the whole world. In particular in 2009 no country of the global economy was left untouched by those drops. Downward trends can be partly attributed to the characteristics of the basket structure of the international trade, i.e. the substantial share falls on the manufactured goods, hi-tech products such as cars, machinery equipment, electronic tools, some chemicals etc. which are in general vulnerable to the demand fluctuations and any foreign business cycle changes. This tendency, together with the fact that the main world producers of those particular goods come from the most developed countries (who are on the other hand also the main consumer of the traded goods on the international markets) has contributed -through the fact that registered drops refer mainly to those counties - to deepening the negative trends in the global perspective. The combination of presenting the trends in international trade during the 2007-2009 crisis with the previous research on the role of the trade structure in the economic growth and its fluctuations in exposing the country’s economy to the external demand influences will bring some suggestions as to the further research on the transmission of the crisis. Such an empirical analysis is planned by the author to be executed in the following steps of working on the subject.

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