Nusikalstamumo augimo Lietuvoje prognozė įvertinant jo erdvinę sklaidą ir sąsają su registruotu nedarbu
Prognosis of crime rate growth in Lithuania, based on its spatial distribution and relationship with registered unemployment rates

Summary/Abstract: The paper is based on a study on spatial trends and relationships between registered crime rate and unemployment in Lithuania, performed in 2008–2010. Data at the municipal level for the period 2002–2008 have been analysed with the purpose to determine territorial differences among the groups of municipalities and to reveal the dependence of crime rate on unemployment within different spatial groups and across the country. The paper describes the part of the research that concerns the relationship between the crime rate and unemployment and provides a prognosis of the crime rate growth in 2010–2011. A correlation between the crime rate and unemployment has been calculated for different groups of municipalities taking into account delays in the variation of the crime rate compared to the unemployment rate. In most municipalities, there is a strong correlation between the crime rate and unemployment indicators with the delay of crime rate growth of one or two years depending on different additional factors that impact the crime rate, besides unemployment. Two specific spatial clusters of municipalities are described in detail: a) the Klaipėda city and the resort town Neringa with a relatively high crime rate and b) the Alytus city and Alytus country district with a relatively low crime rate. In the former, the impact of unemployment on crime rate growth is generally less significant due to the other strong factors such as annual variation of tourist flows, especially in Neringa. In the Alytus cluster, the dependence of crime rate growth on unemployment is very strong and the delay is just one year. The reasons for variations in these municipalities are discussed in detail, and a prognosis of crime rate growth until 2011 is presented for the whole country. According to the prognosis, the crime rate in Lithuania will grow and reach the maximum of the period 2004–2011 in 2011. There is a trend of the growth of crime rate in the municipalities where it was high, and a trend of a decrease in the municipalities where the crime rate was relatively low. The trends of registered crime rates at municipality level for 2010 are presented on a map (Figure 4).

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