Változó munkaerőpiac? Munkaerő-piaci előrejelzés Észak-Magyarországon
Changing Labour Market? Labour Market Projections for Northern Hungary

Summary/Abstract: Globalization basically determines regional processes and regional labour markets. Lilien index introduces sectoral division in the light of employment. Lilien index is applicable to explore the weights among regions by means of investigating the number of people employed in particular sectors. The monthly unemployment data are suitable for stochastic time series analysis; as the author had intended to deal primarily with the analysis of the short term impact. Decomposition models include the most popular time series analysis methods, so called seasonal ARIMA model is used. The author carried out a control modelling in order to check the usability of the prediction that sought answer to what the trend of the number of registered job-seekers would have been if there had been no crisis in 2008.

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