Modelovanie vývoja príspevkov do poistných fondov
MODELLING OF INSURANCE FUNDS CONTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT

Summary/Abstract: This article is describing a set of models used for analyses, modelling and for creating alternative prognoses for various types of public funds income development in the Slovak Republic. The set of econometric models enables to identify and quantificate the depen-dency of incomes on the development of macroeconomic indicators during 1993 till 1997, thus giving a background for preparing public funds income development prognoses for the years 1998 through 2000. A small macroeconomic model of the Slovak economy is a core of the above intro-duced set of models since macroeconomic environment through some macro indicators has effected incomes of single public funds (health insurance and medical care insur-ance, old pension fund, unemployment insurance fund). The model represents 22 equa-tions mapping basic macroeconomic relationship. Of a total number, there are 16 sto-chastic equations and 6 equations representing identities. The equations pose a inter-dependent set of relations between basic macroeconomic variables. Three public fund models are associated with the macroeconomic model: • income and number of payers model for the health care fund • income and number of payers model for the social insurance fund • income and number of payers model for the unemployment insurance fund Endogenous variables of those models (incomes of a respective category of funds and a number of payees within a category) are functions of some endogenous variables of the macroeconomic model and of some specific exogenous variables. The macroeco-nomic model, as well as three above named public funds models were estimated with the help of SORITEC system based on quarterly data covering 1993–1997. The progno-sis of public funds income and of the number of payers within particular categories comes from macroeconomic prognosis generated by the econometric model of Slovakia. The results of the prognoses are stores in four output files which are formatted into excel submodels (charts and tables). The application itself (variant prognoses, scenarios, etc.) is subsequently made in the user friendly EXCEL system which offer immediate recalculation of impacts if parameters of a particular scenario have changed. Final re-sults are presented as tables and charts including basic prognosis of public funds in-comes as well as alternative prognoses based on scenarios created by a user. The prognosis and analyses of incomes for health insurance funds social funds and unemployment funds is offered for users in the form of a „notebook„ created in Excel 7.0 environment. The notebook makes use of prognosis application results created in SORITEC which are stored in specific outputs files in a predefines structure and contain the prognosis of development of selected macroeconomic indictors, the prognosis of incomes and of the number of health insurance payers, the prognosis of incomes and of the number of unemployment insurance payers...

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