ロシアの対CIS貿易の構造分析　―― その特徴と経済統合への含意 ――
Analysis of Structural Changes in Russia’s Trade with CIS Countries

Summary/Abstract: After the demise of the Soviet Union, Russia has initiated several plans towards establishing free trade area (FTA) and customs union with other CIS countries. However, more recently, several trade confrontations among CIS countries, such as Russia’s antidumping measures on metal pipes imports from Ukraine, have been observed. In order to understand in which direction Russia and other CIS countries are heading – economic integration or disintegration, it is important to examine the nature of existing CIS intra-bloc trade from two aspects: systemic changes and trade dynamics, bearing in mind some mutual effects between them. However, concerning the trade dynamics between Russia and other CIS countries, only a few studies have been previously conducted. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the structural changes in Russia’s trade with CIS countries over the past 16 years by comparing its commodity structure and trade patterns with those seen in the trade with non-CIS countries. For this purpose, some indices are calculated using Russia’s foreign trade data, classified by the two- or four-digit Harmonized System (HS) categories compiled and issued by the Federal Customs Service of Russia (FTS), the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis of the Republic of Belarus (Minstat) and the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics database (UNCOMTRADE). Due to the fact that most of these data have been available only since 1994, the analysis made in this paper is mainly for the period 1994 through 2005.

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