Kryzys w Wenezueli: główni aktorzy i scenariusze rozwoju sytuacji
The Crisis in Venezuela: Leading Players, Possible Scenarios

Summary/Abstract: The crisis in Venezuela has reached a deadlock. Judging by the events of the last three months, we cannot expect anything else but further clashes between the government and protesters, under tacit approval of the international community and amidst rising concern about army intervention. If protests do not lead to any meaningful change, they may progressively lose momentum, thus helping the corrupt and inept government of Nicolás Maduro to stay in power, despite the fact he let the Venezuelan National Guard shoot at protesters. We may also see a “palace coup”, with a government transition within the chavista movement. Finally, the conflict may intensify, leading to further bloodshed and a breakdown of the structures of the state. As long as there is no credible perspective of a political dialogue, Venezuela will face three more-or-less evil scenarios.

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