Валутните позиции на търговските банки при прехода към Еврозоната (Проблеми и решения)
Foreign Exchange Positions of the Commercial Banks during the Transition toward the Euro zone (Problems and Solutions)

Summary/Abstract: In the article is developed a model of vector autoregression (VAR) for integrated-co-integrated data type of factorial nature of the British pound value (the currency of the EU's leading economy, which is outside the Euro zone) against the world's leading reserve currency (USD). The theoretical justification of the model requires the application of factor variables that have a fundamental character for a specific economy. The opposite means to calculate a regression dependency of an obvious type with data that historically, for example due to inflation and other processes, has a uniformed and unchanged trend upwards. The relation between the factor variables, which are all of a non-stationary type, is tested for the purposes of the model. In order to confirm their non-stationary type the method for testing the co-integration data is applied. Refracted through the prism of the foreign exchange positions management of the commercial banks (CBs), this study develops further the principle of minimum financial balance to a principle of the minimum foreign currency and financial balance of the CBs, defined as follows: Liabilities that are available in the CBs must be disposed in bank assets, whose duration and currency denomination correspond to the minimum duration and currency denomination of the source of their insurance.

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