Prognóza vývoja ekonomiky Slovenskej republiky do roku 2006
PROJECTION OF THE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC UP TO THE YEAR 2006

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents medium – term prediction of the macro – economic indicators in the Slovak economy. The prediction originated in the Institute of Slovak and World Economic of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (ISWE SAS) by the application of an eco-nometric model ISWE01q4. To understand better the economic development in Slovakia, development since 1998 is briefly characterised. Starting points and assumptions con-cerning future development of the internal and external economic environment define limited space for the future development estimates. As for the institutional environment one respected the intentions of the Parliament, the Government and the Slovak National Bank. The concentration of singular influences contributes to the future development inde-terminacy. The political cycle conclusion and the implementation delay of the Govern-ment coalition programme concerning the reforms and privatising belong to the strong-est internal influences. The changes in external environment are the product of the dynamic development in the international political scene where the estimation of rele-vant impacts is difficult. The prediction is focussed at the estimate of price develop-ment, labour market, wages, monetary aggregates, and GDP demand components. Monetary policy will act in an anti inflationary way. Price deregulation, the deve-lopment of wages, and the growth of import prices will act in pro- inflationary way. Based on these influences predicted inflation in the years 2002–2006 will be in the interval from 6.7 % down to 6.2 % with the gradually decreasing tendency. The growth of consumer prices exerts pressure from the employees on the increase of wages. The increase of unemployment on the other way enables the employers to revise the development of wages. Predicting wages development for the year 2002 one takes into account the election cycle. We expect, that to achieve labour productivity the enterprises will prefer wage increases to the increase of employee numbers. Nominal wage increase can thus reach about 8 % level. In the model equation the level of nominal wages influences predominantly the labour demand development. The level of nominal wages acts negatively on the labour demand, while credits granted to the enterprises help to increase employment rate. Ex-port is an important factor too; it promotes industrial production thus influencing posi-tively employment rate. The employment rate development has a significantly inertial character. The labour demand development expected in the years 2002–2006 implies the increased significance of favourable influences concerning the employment rate.

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