Štvrťročný ekonometrický model slovenskej ekonomiky QEM-ECM-1.0
A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE SLOVAK ECONOMY QEM-ECM-1.0

Summary/Abstract: The quarterly econometric model QEM-ECM-1.0 represents an experimental version of a new model of the Slovak economy which is based on the application of the ECM methodology. It was developed during 2000 and, from its economic content point of view, it follows the econometric models of the Slovak economy being developed in INFOSTAT, Bratislava during the previous time period. In line with the principles of the market economy, the demand character is the dominating feature of this model which is expressed by a demand specification of re-gression equations presenting prevailingly the development of the main macroeconomic indicators of the real economy. The limiting factor in this sense is the short history of market relations in the Slovak economy which has influenced also the specification of the final forms of model’s regression equations. The presented experimental version of the econometric model of the Slovak econ-omy is formed by a simultaneous system of 80 dynamic, linear and non-linear equations and identities which express the relationships between 135 variables. The core of the econometric model QEM-ECM-1.0 is formed by 26 regression equations of which 25 are estimated based on the ECM methodology and one has the classical econometric form. It is well known that the ECM methodology, being created by R. Engle and C. Granger, is based on the combination of statistical and econometric methods. Its attractiveness lies in the fact that, on the contrary to the classical econometric approach, it allows to express separately the short-term and long-term influences of explanatory variables on the development of the explained variable within the estimation of the regression equation The development of the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Slovak economy from the area of its real, financial and banking sectors is presented by the means of particular regression equations of the model. The following variables belong to the main endogenous variables of the model: GDP and the components of its use, trade balance and the balance of services, employment and unemployment, deflators of GDP and its components, nominal and real wages in the Slovak economy, state budget revenues and expenditures, money supply, amount of credits, interest rates etc. Among the key exogenous variables expressing the main tools of the macroeco-nomic policy belong the following ones: exchange rate and the state budget balance. Among the so called truly exogenous variables one can put the indicators of the import to the EU and the Czech Republic and the price index of imports to the EU member countries.

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