СИЛА НАРОДУ ЧИ СИЛА ВЛАДИ: порівняння кризи 2004-го та 2014 років в Україні
PEOPLE’S POWER VS AUTHORITY POWER: COMPARING 2004 AND 2014 POLITICAL CRISES IN UKRAINE

Summary/Abstract: Introduction. Why has V. Yanukovych been long able to survive, while L. Kuchma failed? Purpose. This paper seeks to locate the factors leading to the downfall of the Kuchma’s regime in Ukraine in 2004 in comparison to the extended regime survival in 2013-2014. Methodology & Result. Drawing on the political science theories of survival and change of hybrid regimes, the author argues that the mass mobilization is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the collapse of an autocrat. Comparing the two crisis episodes of 2004 and 2014 in Ukraine by using ten indicators, the author argues that the regime’s organizational capacity initially was higher than both Western democratic pressure and ‘people’s power’. Conclusion. Only after the third violent attempt to disperse Maidan had failed, the ‘power vertical’ collapsed which led to the creation of a new parliamentary majority and effective loss of power by the incumbent.

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