Określenie czynników wpływających na prawdopodobieństwo poprawy poziomu rozwoju społecznego z wyko-rzystaniem modelu logitowego
The definition of factors influencing the probability of improving the level of human development using the logit model

Summary/Abstract: The diversity of social development level in Poland on the local level is much higher than between regions. Therefore, there is a need to monitor and assess the level of social development in poviats and municipalities in Poland. Correct measurement requires the use of suitable measurers. One of the most common measures used to assess the level of social development is Human Development Index and Local Human Development Index. The aims of this paper include the identification of predictors of the Local Human Development Index value improvement in poviats in Poland. In this study, a logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of improvement of LHDI. The following factors were used: indicators for health, education and wealth as well as health expenditures index, educational expenditures index and local expense index and the type of poviat. The quality of the built up logistic regression model was evaluated using measures e.g.: count-R2, the Hosmer-Lemenshow test and ROC Curve.

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