Anticipace vlivu exogenních šoků v měnovém mechanizmu
Anticipation of the Effects of Exogenous Shocks in the Monetary Mechanism

Summary/Abstract: During the transformation period, policy of the Czech Central Bank (ČNB) has been focused mostly on controlling the inflation and less on promoting economic growth. The expected benefit of such policy is a long-term economic stability and an increased long-term trend of GDP growth. Nevertheless, notable costs of the adopted policy exist, consisting mostly of shortterm negative output fluctuations. In this article, we aim to anticipate the impact of single (non-repetitious) structural shocks on the level of inflation, real interest rates and GDP. We do so by applying impulse response (IR) analysis to an estimated econometric VAR model of the Czech economy, built on quarterly data for the period 1994 to 2002

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