Моделиране на търсенето и предлагането на кредити в България
Modelling the demand and supply of loans in Bulgaria

Summary/Abstract: Econometric modelling of demand and supply of bank loans in Bulgaria, introducedin this scientific paper, can help not only decision makers in the public and privatesector, but can also support researchers and analysts in revealing the determinantsof lending, being a major factor for the economy dynamics. The bank loans’demand and supply determinants are parameterized using the Johansen (1988)and the two-step Engle and Granger (1987) approaches to cointegration and errorcorrection dynamic modelling. The main results reveal that the demand for loans inthe long run depends mainly on the economic activity, capital inflows, deposits andloans to deposits ratio of the non-financial sector. In the short term thesedeterminants are complemented by imports of goods and services. The supply ofloans, however, in all time frames is influenced primarily by changes in banks’liquidity, net interest income, capital adequacy and the producer prices dynamics,but in the long term consumer prices, market concentration and foreign ownershipare supplementing the supply of loans’ drivers.

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