Анализ и прогнозна оценка на потреблението на основните хранителни продукти и напитки от селските домакинства до 2020 г. с ARIMA-модели
Analysis and forecast estimate of consumption of basic food products and beverages by rural households by 2020 made with ARIMA-models

Summary/Abstract: The research results on the estimate of the changes inthe consumption level of basic food products and beverages by rural households in the period 2000-2012and the expected consumption in 2020 are presented in this study. A comparative analysis is performed of theconsumption of city and village households, with enclosed methodology for index factor analysis and theforecast approach of ARIMA modeling. Conclusions are made on the changes that have occurred in structureand content of nutritive and caloric ingredients, consumed by village inhabitants; the degree of influence ofprice indexes and the food product quantity on the consumption index in terms of value; the forecast quantitiesof food products and beverages, expected to be consumed by rural households and the structure of theircaloric content by 2020.

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