Cyclical dynamics of key fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria over the period 1998-2014
Cyclical dynamics of key fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria over the period 1998-2014

Summary/Abstract: We present an overview of the dynamics of fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria in the period 1998 to 2014. The paper investigates the cyclical dynamics of budget revenue and expenditure and their major components. Using time series of deflated statistical data we calculate the elasticity of individual revenue and expenditure components to GDP growth – both for the overall period and for the post-crisis years. The major conclusion is that the Bulgarian fiscal aggregates are characterized mainly by procyclical dynamics, with the wages and maintenance expenditures being the least sensitive, and investment – the most sensitive to upturns and downturns in growth. These results can feed into fiscal policy and outline the potential to use public investment as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilization in the country.

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