WHITHER DEVELOPMENT? THE EFFECTS OF THE EURASIAN UNION ON THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS
WHITHER DEVELOPMENT? THE EFFECTS OF THE EURASIAN UNION ON THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS

Summary/Abstract: In this paper I analyze the impact of the Eurasian Union on the Central Asian republics, with a focus on remittances trends. To this end I review at first the literature regarding the effects of the Customs Union on its members. Then, I assess the current state of the economies most likely to be affected by membership in the Eurasian Union, i.e. Tajikistan and Kyrgystan, whose specificity is their dependence of remittances. Secondly, I present a plausible scenario in regard to the influence of the formalization of this regional organization on the emerging Central Asian regional security subcomplex. I argue that the EEU is a hindrance toward the five Central Asian Republics` evolving towards a regional security complex. Not only has it already distorted trade in the region, but it can also turn some presently frozen conflicts into security hotspots. I hold that the only way to spur a development in the region is, internally, to diversify the economy, and, externally, to bring the five republics closer. I try to show that the Central Asian Republics should simultaneously pursue a switch from a balance of threat to regional integration and sustainable national development. Nonetheless, the EEU will have at best mixed effects when it comes to these necessities. Alternatively, China and the New Silk Road initiative that it endorses might contribute to de-securitizing some of the existing issues.

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