Прогнозування розвитку складних техніко-економічних систем мезорівня
Development forecast of complicated meso-level technical and economic systems

Summary/Abstract: The article proposes multi–factor economical and mathematical model for describing cyclic character of elemental interconnection of complicated technical and economic systems. The article revealed the presence of small economic cycles in the development of complicated systems, such as black metallurgy and housing and utility sector with the duration 2–4 years. Theoretical model of cyclicity is confirmed by the actual statistical data. Aim of article: studying the nature and peculiarities of the small cycles in the development of complicated technical and economic system which provides the possibility to model the economic processes and forecast the main parameters of meso–level system development. Methods of research included economic analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, forecasting and modeling. Results of research: research of economic cyclicity of Ukrainian black metallurgy development in Ukraine 2000 – 2010 is conducted and interrelation of cyclicity of developing black metallurgy and raw components, such as iron–ore and chemical recovery industries, is determined. Besides, interrelation between the cyclic development of these branches and cycles of price index on their products is established. Duration of every cycle makes 2–4, therefore the cycles are small. Research of the cyclicity of changing prices on the housing and utility in general and in connection with the separate components: hot and cold water, electricity, gas supply, heating and rent. Interconnection of cyclicity of changing prices on the housing and utility services is established; cycle duration is 2 years. Cyclic processes were studied in branches with essential differences. Metallurgy is attributed to production, housing and utility sector – to services. Metallurgy market within the researched period was competitive, than monopolistic, within 2008–2009 – oligopolistic, from 2010 – subject to monopolization. Housing and utility sector belongs to natural monopolies. Received positive results on the application of the proposed economical and mathematical model for describing cyclic character of developing complicated technical and economic systems confirm its universal properties.

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