IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE TO TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN SERBIA AND EUROZONE: THE J CURVE EFFECT Cover Image

УТИЦАЈ ДЕВИЗНОГ КУРСА НА ТРГОВИНСКИ БИЛАНС ИЗМЕЂУ СРБИЈЕ И ЕВРОЗОНЕ: ЕФЕКАТ Ј КРИВЕ
IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE TO TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN SERBIA AND EUROZONE: THE J CURVE EFFECT

Author(s): Predrag Petrović
Subject(s): National Economy
Published by: Универзитет у Нишу
Keywords: J curve effect; real exchange rate; trade balance; cointegration

Summary/Abstract: This paper is dedicated to the research of the effects of the J curve in the scope of Serbia – Eurozone trade balance in the period between 2006 and 2014. The analysis has been conducted based on the concept of time series cointegration, using АRDL bounds testing approach, after which the robustness of the obtained findings was checked by estimation of the ARDL model at the level of first differences. The obtained results provide for quite reliable proofs that the J curve effects exist between Serbia and Eurozone, i.e. that short-term influence of real exchange rate to trade balance is negative, while long-term one is positive. These findings are quite reliable, although they are not completely confirmed through the estimation of the ARDL model at the first difference levels, since the testing has been conducted using critical values simulated for small samples.

  • Issue Year: XL/2016
  • Issue No: 3
  • Page Range: 1051-1067
  • Page Count: 17
  • Language: Serbian
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