Estimation and Forecast of Regional Competitiveness Level
Estimation and Forecast of Regional Competitiveness Level

Summary/Abstract: The paper is devoted to the development of methods for point and interval forecasting of the integral indexof regional competitiveness. We stick to one of the most commonly used approaches to assessing the level ofcompetitiveness based on its advantages over the others. As a result of this approach, the integral competitivenessindex appears to be bounded, i.e. has a lower and upper limit. Due to this particular feature, it is proposedto carry out the forecasting of competitiveness index using multivariate logistic regression. The parametersof such model are determined using OLS through an inverse logarithmic transformation of the dependentvariable. To calculate interval forecasts for the model, we proposed a new probability distribution for theerrors of the nonlinear regression equation in the class of logistic curves. According to the proposed method,we calculated and forecasted the regional competitiveness level for the Russian Federation until 2020. Theanalysis of the data revealed some features of the regions distribution in terms of competitiveness level andindicated regional development trends. The paper has been prepared within the research project №1675:"Methodological and analytical tools for solving problems of spatial development of Russian economy underconditions of modern reforms" in terms of the basic part of the state order in the field of scientific activity ofRussian Ministry of Education.

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