ZRÓŻNICOWANIE WSPÓŁCZYNNIKA OKUNA ZE WZGLĘDU NA WIEK I PŁEĆ BEZROBOTNYCH - ANALIZA PANELOWA DLA KRAJÓW UNII EUROPEJSKIEJ
DIFFERENTIATION OF OKUN'S LAW COEFFICIENT ACCORDING TO THE AGE AND SEX OF THE UNEMPLOYED - PANEL ANALYSIS OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Summary/Abstract: In this study, the estimations of coefficients of Okun's law in “difference version” were made for the panel data covering the countries from the European Union and including the structure of the unemployment according to the age and the sex. The author presents a theoretical model based on Okun's law but additionally broadens the “difference version”of Okun's law by the hysteresis effect of unemployment rates, which was a subject for empirical verification based on panel data for EU countries for the years 1998-2014, which were divided into two groups EU15 and the EU13. This division into groups resulted from a desire to observe the impact of the economic growth rate on an increase in unemployment of different social groups (according to the age and sex) in the „old” and „new” EU. The empirical analyses were conducted upon the basis of two variants of estimated dependences: the equation of “difference version” of Okun's law and the proposed equation of Okun's law in “different version” taking into account the effect of hysteresis in unemployment rates between analyzed groups. In the estimations the SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) method was used what allows for calculating contemporaneous correlation of components from different sections, which in the case of the EU labor market seems to be justified. When taking into account the effect of hysteresis in unemployment rates the dummy variables were used. Such approach is an effect of assumption that the dummy variables act as variables correcting the impact of the unemployment rate from the previous period on the increase in the current rate of unemployment and they depend on whether the rate has increased or decreased.

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