TRAFNOŚĆ PROGNOZ W STOSUNKU DO OCEN W TEŚCIE KONIUNKTURY PRZEMYSŁOWEJ GUS
ACCURACY OF FORECASTS RELATIVE TO EVALUATIONS IN THE CSO INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS CYCLE TEST

Summary/Abstract: The study is the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the CSO industrial business cycle test. Detailed research concerns the accuracy of the forecasts formulated in relation to the production, stock of orders and financial situation. The forecasts of these features formulated by the entrepreneurs are compared to their subsequent evaluations of current states. The results indicate that entrepreneurs responding to the question about forecast of production and stock of orders in the next three months focus mainly on the next two months. The forecasts are generally overestimated. Their average accuracy is moderate but shows a marked improvement in recent years.

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