THE USE OF CLASSIC SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TIME SERIES IN FORECASTING OF SELECTED VARIABLES CHARACTERISING SEA PORT ACTIVITY Cover Image

WYKORZYSTANIE KLASYCZNYCH MODELI SZEREGU CZASOWEGO Z WAHANIAMI SEZONOWYMI W PROGNOZOWANIU WYBRANYCH ZMIENNYCH CHARAKTERYZUJĄCYCH DZIAŁALNOŚĆ PORTU MORSKIEGO
THE USE OF CLASSIC SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TIME SERIES IN FORECASTING OF SELECTED VARIABLES CHARACTERISING SEA PORT ACTIVITY

Author(s): Wojciech Kuźmiński, Jarosław Siergiej
Subject(s): Economy, Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
Published by: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
Keywords: forecasting; ex post forecast accuracy analysis; ports of basic significance for the national economy;

Summary/Abstract: The article presents the results of forecasting for the variables characterizing the port activity (transshipments) from a seasonal perspective. The Act on Sea Ports and Marinas imposes an obligation on the entities managing sea ports of the basic significance for the marine economy to forecast, programme and plan port development. As regards the volume of transshipments in ports, the so called naive methods are used most frequently. The article attempts at using the econometric models of time series with seasonal fluctuations to forecast port phenomena. The obtained forecast results (assessed with the ex post forecast accuracy measure) must be considered satisfactory.

  • Issue Year: 2014
  • Issue No: 36/2
  • Page Range: 319-332
  • Page Count: 14
  • Language: Polish
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