Синергетическое моделирование параметров энергетической системы Российской Федерации
Synergetic Modelling of the Russian Federation’s Energy System Parameters

Summary/Abstract: The energy system in any country is the basis of the whole economy. The level of its development largely determines thequantity and quality of economic entities, periods of economic growth, fall and stagnation. A high percentage of the powerdeficientmunicipalities in the Russian Federation shows the substantive issues in this sphere that carries a threat to the energysecurity of the state.One of the promising trends for enhancing the energy security is the renewable energy sources (RES). Their use has theobvious benefits: it provides electricity to power-deficient and inaccessible areas, contributes to the introduction and spread ofnew technologies, thus solving the important social and economic problems. At that, it is important to determine the optimumratio using of the recovery of renewable and conventional energy sources (CES). One of the main challenges in this regard isto build a model that adequately reflects the ratio of renewable and conventional energy sources in the Russian energy system.The paper presents the results of a synergistic approach to the construction of such a model. The Lotka-Volterra model wasthe main instrument used, which allowed to study a behavior pattern of the considered systems on the basis of the simplifiedregularities. It was found that the best possibility for the qualitative ”jump” in the Russian energy sector was in 2008. Thecalculations have allowed to investigate the behavior of the Russian energy system with the variation of the initial conditions andto assess the validity of the targets for the share of electricity produced through the use of renewable energy in the total electricpower of the country.

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