Demografski razvoj otoka Brača i sklonost otočana iseljavanju
Demographic Development of the Island of Brač and the Islanders’ Tendency to Emigrate

Summary/Abstract: The paper analyses the basic demographic indicators of the Island of Brač and its settlements. Particular focus is on emigration from the island and its effect on demographic development of the island. The paper also presents the results of the survey conducted on the island in 2014. The aim of the survey was to investigate the level of satisfaction related to life on the island, and the respondents’ attitude toward emigration. Since the survey encompassed 151 permanent residents of the Island of Brač, the sample cannot be regarded as representative, so the survey results were not analysed separately, but rather incorporated in the demographic analysis.Throughout most of the 20th century, the Croatian insular area was characterised by intensive depopulation. Peak population on the islands was recorded in 1921, and it was followed by a long period of population decline, which lasted until 1991. However, the peak population on the Island of Brač was recorded in 1900, and it was also followed by a long period of depopulation, which ended in 1981. Official census data indicate that from 1981 until the present day Brač has recorded population increase, but that increase is actually fictitious (it was actually caused by “administrative immigration” – people increasingly registered their residence on the island in order to gain certain benefits regardless of their actual place of living or residence).Analysis of the population trends on the Island of Brač shows that in the period from 1857 to 1900, all the settlements on the island had population increase due to very favourable economic situation on the island brought by the vine-growing expansion. Economic prosperity of the island and high birth rates in the first phase of demographic transition resulted in rapid population growth. However, after the Wine Clause had been signed in 1891, and particularly after 1910, when phylloxera devastated the local vineyards, the insular economy collapsed, which consequently led to intensive emigration, and had a long-term negative effect on population composition. The emigration in that period was sex-selective, i.e. most of the emigrants from the island were young males. The emigration period continued in the 20th century until 1981. The census data from 1981 to 1991 indicate that the population started to grow, regardless whether we took into consideration the population living abroad or not.Natural population change was positive until 1991, with the exception of 1977 and 1979, but then it reversed to negative, with the exception of the period between 1995 and 1997. As the result of lower birth rates, the rates of natural population change were much worse in the settlements located in the interior of the island. Coupled with negative net migration, natural decrease in the interior settlements resulted in intensive demographic regression, which could ultimately lead to complete depopulation of some settlements. From 1981 to 2011, the net migration on the island was positive, probably due to decreasing emigration brought by the intensive development of tourism on the island. Also, from 1980s on, there has been a trend of immigration on the island from the mainland, but mostly of elderly population who decided to move to their native island (or to the native island of their spouses) after retirement. As for the attitude of the local population toward emigration, the survey results indicate that 83% of the respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with their life on the island. Only 2% of the respondents were very dissatisfied with their life on the island, mostly due to the lack of job opportunities. Some of the other disadvantages pointed out by the respondents were the lack of social and cultural services. The main reasons for commuting from the island are shopping and health services, which indicate main deficiencies of the insular infrastructure. Although the Croatian insular area, including the Island of Brač, has a long-term tradition of emigration, only 23% of the respondents want to leave the island, but 30% of them would emigrate if better opportunities arose elsewhere. The most appealing destination of potential emigrants is Split, which indicates that overseas emigration is not as appealing as it used to be.Despite the population growth, recorded in the last intercensal periods, the age composition of the insular population is becoming more unfavourable. Namely, from 1971 to 2011, there was a continuous increase of adult and elderly population, and simultaneous decrease of young population. In 2011, the young population comprised only 13% of the whole population on the Island of Brač. Due to population ageing, the base of the population pyramid has been narrowing as the result of decreasing birth rates. From 1971 to 2011, the mean age of the population increased from 37.5 to 44.6 years; the proportion of the elderly population increased from 15.9% to 21.6%, and the ageing index rose from 72.8 to 166.2. At the same time, the vital index was decreasing continuously, and in 2011 it fell to only 79.8, which indicates the natural decrease.The research has shown that the demographic trends on the Island of Brač are unfavourable despite the recorded trend of population increase. That increase has mostly been the result of a fictitious increase and immigration of elderly population. The situation is particularly grave in the interior settlements (located further from the seashore), which have been characterized by intensive depopulation and population ageing. On the other hand, demographic indicators of the settlements located on the seashore are more favourable due to intensive development of tourism, which contributes to both economic and demographic development of larger settlements on the island.

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