ПУБЛИЧНИ РАЗХОДИ НА РЕПУБЛИКА БЪЛГАРИЯ – ЕМПИРИЧНИ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ И ВЪЗМОЖНОСТИ ЗА МОДЕЛИРАНЕ
PUBLIC EXPENDITURES OF REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA – EMPIRICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING CAPABILITIES

Summary/Abstract: The proposed article is an attempt to be analyzed and studied the changes in the total public expenditure (PE) of the Republic of Bulgaria in the period before, during and after the global financial and economic crises. It is offered and discussed an econometric models explaining changes in public expenditure and providing opportunities for predicting the future value of PE. Given the effects of long-term and strategic decisions in macroeconomic terms as the most suitable for analysis is selected the period from 1998 to 2013. The development of econometric models of public expenditure as an independent variable is used nominal GDP. Some of the most important results are as follows: PE has a clear upward trend of development (relative growth at the end of the period compared with the 1998 is 244%); the time changes of PE and GDP is described by the same trend functions (compound, growth and exponent), and the same is the evaluation of the regression coefficient before of independent “t” (β = 0,09); 1 autocorrelation of PE and GDPis significant and it is overcome to a large extent differences of first order - I (1); of the proposed four models based on the logarithmic differences of first order as statistically reliable 2 become one model with independent variable Diff (LnGDP, 1) and this model has got R = 0,276 and coefficient before the predictor 0,263 (Sig.T = 0,026). The residuels of the same model also meet the requirements of OLS method.

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